By Kingsley Ohens
Candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the September 21 governorship election in Edo State, Dr Asue Ighodalo, has recorded an emphatic lead in a recent poll of registered voters in the state conducted by EBDA and audited by BusinessDay newspaper.
The results of the poll published on Monday morning by BusinessDay shows that a total of 1,179 registered voters resident in the state were surveyed. Ighodalo garnered a commanding 68 percent of respondents who indicated that he is their choice if the election were held today.
This puts him well ahead of all his competitors by a very wide margin. The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Monday Okpebholo, came a distant second with 18 percent of the intending vote while Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata was only able to garner 14 percent to place third. The three political parties are seen as the frontrunners in next month’s election.
The poll, conducted on August 6th, 2024, sought to understand voters intentions by simply asking, “Who would you vote for in the Edo governorship election?”
Besides, investigations also revealed that while a high percentage of voters (95.9 percent) have collected their permanent voter cards (PVCs), only 73.1 percent expressed willingness to vote, according to the report by BusinessDay.
The available data also highlighted a gender disparity among those likely to vote, with 68 percent of potential voters being male and 32 percent female, despite the INEC voter register showing an almost equal distribution between the sexes.
Zoning as an issue also features prominently as 61.2 percent of respondents supported the idea of rotating power between different regions in Edo State. Only 14.8 percent opposed the concept, while 24 percent choosing not to answer.
Sharon Orisakwe, managing director of EBDA, observed that support for zoning, while still a strong factor, has however, dropped by 16.8 percent from the 78 percent support for the idea respondents indicated when EBDA polled in January.
“Zoning remains a hot button issue ahead of the Edo governorship elections; and may in part explain why the first and second ranked candidates are from Edo Central, the region where supporters of zoning believe the next governor should come from,” she said.
She also stated that the most critical issues for the next governor to address, according to respondents are the increased cost of living (46 percent), road infrastructure (36 percent), and insecurity (18 percent). Notably, the poll also found that political party membership is low among respondents, with only 19.6 percent identifying as party members, while 68.7 percent claimed no affiliation. About 11.7 percent of respondents declined answering this question.
According to the report, the poll employed proportionate, stratified random sampling, ensuring a representative sample drawn from the current INEC Voter Register. Conducted via randomised telephone interviews, the poll has a margin of error of 3 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent. Its reliability was confirmed through a test-retest process in five randomly selected local government areas, which yielded consistent results. The poll offers critical insights into voters preferences ahead of the September 21 date.
