2027: Conspiratorial Whispers and Permutations — By Elempe Dele
It is 2026, the prelude to the 2027 presidential election. The ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, is tenacious in its bid to retain power. On the other hand, the main opposition, the African Democratic Congress, ADC, vows, without mincing words, to oust the APC from what it calls a chokehold on power.
For this piece, I will dwell on conspiratorial whispers I heard today from a respected individual. Conspiracy theories are not the most reliable basis for analysis, but no one should take any political development for granted.
The present ADC is the brainchild of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Anyone disputing that is disingenuous. As a smart and experienced politician, he gathered several disenchanted politicians under the solid umbrella first called the Coalition, which later morphed into the political party ADC. Whether it was “purchased,” as some peddle, is immaterial. Personally, I never knew such a party existed.
Inside ADC, Atiku is poised to win the ticket through consensus. If there is viable opposition to consensus, he will take it through direct primary — more expensive, and hardly transparent. He has said this is his last shot at the presidency, and he means it.
When he wins — that certitude is already established in his camp — the vice-presidential slot will not automatically go to Peter Obi, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate. Others from the East, within and outside the party, will be considered.
According to my source, there are fears Obi may not enjoy the latitude of support he got in the East in 2023, due to his lack of temerity to sustain his organic base. We must ask: where exactly is the Obidient Movement today? Has it fizzled out?
Governor Charles Soludo, a staunch Tinubu supporter, has vowed that Obi will not win his polling unit in 2027. In fact, in Peter Obi’s polling unit — PU 019, Agulu Ward 11, Anaocha LGA — the APC candidate, Nicholas Ukachukwu, won with 73 votes in the last cycle.
There are glaring flyers of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso adorning social media pages. Yet Kwankwaso has previously said it would be impossible to be vice to Obi because he is more experienced, performed better as governor, and has no reason to play second fiddle.
More recently, word is that the North has ruled out any of their key leaders playing second fiddle to Obi for obvious historical and ethnic reasons. When asked how Datti could be his vice, the source said Datti was not a plus in the political equation of the North. The source added that Datti, always ranting on national television, could not win his polling unit, ward, LGA, or state in the 2023 presidential election.
The option open to Peter Obi now, as he reads Atiku and ADC’s stenciled but invisible words on the wall, is to lean toward Senator Dickson’s Nigeria Democratic Congress, DNC. But there is a problem: DNC is said to be a brainchild of President Tinubu, so it offers no comfort for a force like Obi.
From all indications, Labour Party, LP, does not look like a home to return to, even though the courts have gifted the party to some of Obi’s political allies.
This time around, like what happened under the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in 2022, zoning the ADC presidential ticket to the South as canvassed by some members will not work, not even the frail political promise of ‘he will do just one term’. President Jonathan promised to ‘do’ one term, did it work? It is not mostly about lack of integrity, it is a known fact that one term is not enough to make any meaningful impact in government.
There are policies to be conceptualized, bills to be considered, bottlenecks, the opposition to contend with and so much that one will look back and say, “how time flies.” So the urge to go for a second term against all odds will always be a constant feature. President Obasanjo allegedly attempted a third term even if his intention were supposedly good.
The road to 2027 is strewn with thorns, obstacles, hindrances, and snags that make factual, holistic predictions nearly impossible. This has aided conspiracy theories. We must agree that some impediments within ADC are self-inflicted. Atiku’s recent interview rubbed raw nerves.
The Kwankwasiyya Movement responded with subtle disagreement over what Atiku said about their leader, although both met privately yesterday to resolve it amicably. Amaechi, too, is making vexatious comments. Obi will not agree that any primary or consensus is free and fair. He will likely seek another platform or not be on the ballot in 2027.
